Tomorrow (20 April), Council members will hold an informal interactive dialogue (IID) on the situation in Somalia. At the time of writing, it was still unclear if the meeting will take place in person or via closed videoconference (VTC) format. The UK, the penholder on Somalia, organised the meeting. The expected briefers include James Swan, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM); Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, the Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN; Workneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); Bankole Adeoye, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security; and Rita Laranjinha, the EU Managing Director for Africa.

This will be the second time this year that Council members have discussed Somalia in an IID. They last held an IID on Somalia on 20 January to discuss delays in holding of federal and legislative elections in the country. Tomorrow’s IID follows the signing by President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed “Farmajo” on 12 April of legislation extending his and the lower house’s four-year mandate for another two years. Farmajo, whose constitutional term officially ended on 8 February, justified the extensions by citing the need to prepare the country for one person-one vote elections.

Although Somalia’s lower house has voted in favour of the extension, the senate reacted critically: according to media reports, the speaker of the senate, Abdi Hashi Abdullahi, called the move unconstitutional. Somalia has not held direct one person-one vote elections since 1969. A political agreement reached on 17 September 2020 between the leaders of Somalia’s federal member states and its federal government had foreseen a system of indirect elections, whereby clan delegates would have chosen members of the lower house of parliament, who would have in turn chosen the president. According to this agreement, legislative elections were scheduled for December 2020 and the presidential round for February 2021. However, disagreements between the federal government and two of its federal member states, Puntland and Jubaland, over organisational matters and accusations of the federal government’s intent to influence the outcome caused a delay.

The term extension and the associated delay in holding elections have been widely criticised by several members of the international community. The EU High Representative Josep Borrell, in a statement published on 13 April, categorised the move as “undermining the longstanding effort, supported by the EU and the international community, to rebuild Somalia through consensus”. He warned that the passage and signing of this law would cause division in Somalia and constitute a threat to stability in the country and in the region. The statement urged the immediate return to talks on the holding of elections based on the 17 September Agreement. The EU indicated that a failure to do so would compel it to “consider further measures”. Similarly, in a 13 April statement, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “deep disappointment” over the approval of the law and stated that “implementation of this bill will pose serious obstacles to dialogue and further undermine peace and security in Somalia”. Accordingly, the US was now compelled to “re-evaluate bilateral relations with the Federal Government of Somalia, to include diplomatic engagement and assistance, and to consider all available tools, including sanctions and visa restrictions, to respond to efforts to undermine peace and stability”. In a 14 April press statement, AMISOM, the EU, IGAD, UN and several member states (among them Council members France, Ireland, Norway, the UK, and the US) emphasised that any “parallel political process, partial elections, or new initiatives leading to an extension of prior mandates will not be supported” and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint, continue dialogue, and avoid unilateral actions that may cause tensions”.

On 10 April, the AU, EU, IGAD, and UN convened virtually to discuss the political stalemate and electoral delays in Somalia. In a communiqué issued following the meeting, the participants of the meeting underscored that the 17 September Agreement was the only viable path toward holding of elections with the shortest delay possible, called upon Somali leaders to prioritise the national interest of the country and urged a return to dialogue. The participants of the meeting reaffirmed their decision “not to support any parallel process, partial elections, or new initiatives leading to any extension of prior mandates”.